prof | Let's Play Umineko, Episode 3 Scene 5: The Raven

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Belphegor of Sloth

Advanced-level furniture created by Beatrice.

Belphegor is well-trusted and known for being a reticent, serious, and responsible piece of furniture.

However, this is all because of her demonic desire to turn her masters into useless, lazy pigs.

In this sense, she might be the most demon-like of all the sisters.

She is serious to a fault, and not at all comfortable with being the one treated kindly instead of the other way around.

BGM: Fishy Aroma

Excuse me. Battler, how about some black tea and cookies?

...I don't need them. I'm busy now, leave me alone.

Oh, my. Such a shame, the cookies were so delicious, too. Cooked so wonderfully it would be a shame to waste them on a simple human. Truly wonderful cookies.

I'll eat some when I feel like it. Set it down over there and get out of here.

Will that be acceptable? Then I shall do so. You may eat them when they get cold and stale, and then regret as much as you like that you did not eat them when they were freshly baked.

You really are annoying. Well, you're a lot better than that Beato, who keeps doing that creepy cackle right next to my ear.

No, no, that is quite true. There are times when Milady's laughter becomes quite undignified. Every time I hear it, I find it painful to comprehend why such a noble demon like myself must have such a person as his master. Pukukuku....

Man, you're weird. If you don't like it, then couldn't you just not work for her?

And yet, to continue serving is furniture's joy. If we do not, we would not be working as furniture.

It appears that you are now more confident regarding the matter of a 19th person's existence, yes? Would you be gracious enough to allow me to hear your opinion?

...Yeah, sure. I'm just gonna say it again in front of Beato anyway. No reason to hide it. Alright, it looks like there's a hidden mansion somewhere on this island, and that Grandfather had his mistress living there. In that case, the question that's been torturing me, about whether there are 18 or 19 people, can be easily resolved.

You have driven yourself into a corner because of the dead-end that you yourself have created. Even though you deny the witch, you hold a double standard, and refuse to accept that the culprit is one of the 18.

The easiest way to deny the witch would be to doubt one of the 18 It isn't easy to gather alibis for every one of them. You always find at least one person with a fragile alibi. I could probably continue to deny the witch forever if I just used that person as a sacrifice.

However, I refuse to do that! Aah, it's useless, it's all useless! Every one of those 18 people is a parent, a relative or a cousin to me! And those reliable servants, who are sometimes serious and sometimes interesting! I won't let myself use any one of them as a sacrifice! In the past, my resolve wavered. That's how Beato hit me where my heart was weak.

...Accepting and understanding your own weaknesses. That is not something which can often be accomplished. Battler, you are using this theory about a 19th person as a spear... or should I say, a shield? In any event, unlike how unprepared you were in the games up until now, let us call the fact that you now have a compass bearing on how to fight a dramatic leap forward. With this, you can suspect a 19th person and can pursue your theory that the culprit is a human, without having to doubt any of the 18 you love and respect.

That's it exactly. Like in the first game, when Kanon was killed in the boiler room... there were plenty of tricks I could have mentioned without hesitation, as long as a 19th person existed.

This theory fills a lot of holes. A 19th human gave Maria the letter. A 19th person swept in and killed Kanon in the boiler room.

BGM: Core

Then how will you do it, demon butler?!

I believe it would be appropriate to ambush the piece representing this 19th person that you mentioned. Battler, have you ever met this 19th person? Would you please show some proof that this 19th person exists?

How naive. Of course I knew you'd try that move!

My, my. Please respond to it.

When you try to make some claim to humans like us, we always counterattack by telling you to show some proof. Because that's a human move. But I'm fighting with a witch. I'm taking part in a battle with someone who isn't human! And some moves exist which can only be used in a game against a witch. There are cheap moves - and that's what this Devil's Proof is, because it's impossible to prove!

In order to prove this, one must find this mansion and actually bring Beatrice out of it. That's called actual proof in the human world. However, if we follow the rules of the Devil's Proof, you can't deny that she exists, even if there's no proof that she does. It's impossible to prove that something doesn't exist.

Because this problematic and mysterious mistress is craftily hiding herself, it would be perfectly natural if you never find her no matter how hard you look. So, you can't say that the 19th person can't be found, and that therefore, the 19th person doesn't exist. Beato used the Devil's Proof to make denying her existence impossible, but this time it's become my weapon.

In the last game and the one before that, among the murder scenes that showed up, there were several that were extremely intricate and must have taken a lot of effort to set up. It's very difficult to imagine that a single culprit could have set all those up. However, if not just a 19th person, but 10 or 100 people were hidden somewhere, that wouldn't be any problem at all.

Well, I think that this is a ridiculous argument that's horribly twisted. If my opponent was human, I'm sure they'd yell at me like I was out of my mind... But my opponent was a witch. And after all, that is the kind of competition we're having, isn't it? I'll use any kind of reckless argument to explain it using humans, and deny the witch!

I see. You have learned from your defeat last time. That is good. It is no surprise that by the third game you have become quite devious. You first strengthen your own defense. That is truly a solid first step. Quite a spectacular move, I think.

Well, even if we do assume that there is a 19th person, there are still a few tricks left that I can't clear, like the actual number of master keys, no matter how many humans I add. Still, it isn't bad as a first step, for the time being.

Battler, your trump card is the important piece called the 19th person. You countered my move of asking where the proof was by using the Devil's Proof. A good skirmish, although I have no excuse for making a move by myself when Milady isn't here. I find that I, too, am becoming slightly interested. I wonder if you will allow me to make yet another move on Milady's behalf?

Come on. I don't care if you're a witch or a demon, it won't be enough!

Hempel's Raven? What are you talking about?

BGM: Organ Short No. 600 Million in C Minor

If it isn't Milady. Good morning.

I thought you might be doing something interesting while I was away. Hempel's Raven, was it? That move is so familiar I could almost laugh. I was certain the day would come when it would be introduced to Battler. It's a classic move to use against the Devil's Proof.

Ronove, I will make this move. Do not get in the way of my fun.

So you've finally shown up, you guffawing witch. I see you still have that undignified laugh. This guy was talking behind your back just now, telling me how undignified it is, right?

What a surprise. Really?

Nonsense. Why would I speak such gossip about Milady, of whom I speak most respectably from my heart?

I can't believe you'd say something so shameless. Doesn't look like we'll be getting along well together...

What are you talking about? Prove that ravens are black... wouldn't you just have to catch a raven and check to see if it's black?

That is right. You must simply prove that a raven is black. And do you see that, if you also prove that birds that aren't black are not ravens, you would reach the same argument? If you go throughout the world, and examine all birds that are not ravens, and prove that none of them are black, then as a result, you can claim "therefore, black birds are ravens". This is called an argument by the contrapositive. Is that difficult for you?

Yeah, completely. I have no idea what you're saying.

Battler, what about this example? Let us say that you have two boxes, and one of them is a winner, with a cookie inside. Of course, the other one is the loser, and is empty.

If "If A then B" is true, then "If not B then not A" is also true.

If the one you guessed was the loser, then you would automatically know that the other one was the winner. In other words, if you choose the box at random, whether it's the winner or the loser, you'll be able to figure out which box has the cookie in it after your first move.

That is correct. If the cookie is in the box you open, then the Devil's Proof is satisfied. You can clearly prove "this box was the winner, therefore this box had a cookie in it". However, if the box you open is empty, then the reverse, Hempel's Raven, is satisfied. It means "this box does not have a cookie in it, therefore the other box is the winner". As long as we accept the premise that there are no more than two boxes, the contrapositive shows that the other box is automatically the winner.

I'm starting to see your reasoning. Only poison can stop poison, and only twisted logic can stop twisted logic. Then what? How does that overturn my claim that because there is certainly a 19th human hidden on this island, even if all of the 18 people have alibis, I still can't accept witches?

Very well. I will teach you about my move. First of all, you are stating that if the culprit is not among the 18, then the culprit is a 19th person. So, if you use the contrapositive, it ends up like this: If the culprit is not a 19th person, then the culprit is one of the 18!

Whaaah?! What does that mean?!

Only that I've countered your move. Let's try and keep things simple. Ronove, explain. It seems you've made things easy enough for Battler to understand with your cookie in a box analogy.

Then forgive my presumption. Allow me to explain my earlier example once more.

Then, in this situation, we could make this next, even more paradoxical claim. If it was first shown that the 19th box was empty, it would prove at the same time that the cookie is in the 18 people box. You played this move in order to avoid having to doubt any of the 18, but it has now been used to prepare an attack on the 18!

What did you say...

Hahahahaha! If I go first, and prove that the inside of the 19th person box is empty, you will automatically have to accept that the cookie is in the 18 people box. All you have done is say this the other way around, you see?

So that move I was so confident in was actually a double-edged sword?

That's right! As soon as you played that move to explain everything with a 19th person, you had already taken on a risk that you might be forced to accept that the culprit was one of the 18.

Replace the first box with 18 boxes, and the cookie with a bomb. The human culprit theory holds that the bomb is in one of the boxes. Battler's move was to create a 19th box and throw the bomb in there. However, Beatrice struck back. If the 19th box was empty, it would automatically mean that the bomb was in one of the 18 boxes.

In order to prove all 18 are innocent, Battler has to open 18 boxes - and in practice, even opening one box would mean staying by that person's side for the full 2 days to make sure they committed no murders. All 18? Impossible. Beatrice, meanwhile, needs only open the 19th box to crush this theory.

By using Hempel's Raven, various reckless arguments become possible to prove true or false. For example, let us say that I make the proposition "All humans except me are foolish". Normally, I would have to examine all of humanity except myself and show that they are all foolish. However, in reality, it would be impossible to investigate billions of people. If is exactly the same kind of effort you would need to open all 18 boxes.

However, by using Hempel's Raven, the contrapositive of that proposition would change it into this: "Not foolish = me". As soon as I know the fact that I am wise, I will be able to show in an instant that every one of the billions of people in the human race is foolish. In less than a second, I could finish proving that the entire human race is more foolish than me! It's the strongest and fastest QED in the world, this Hempel's Raven!

What a ridiculous argument!

The move for my counterattack is complete. And now, in response to your claim of "the 19th person is the culprit,therefore, the 18 are innocent and the witch doesn't exist", I say "therefore, if I can prove that the culprit is not some 19th person, we can be sure that the culprit is either one of the 18 or a witch", right?

No... not yet.

The Devil's Proof worked once, so why not a second time?

Hmm, I see... Even if I somehow prove an alibi for the 19th person, as soon as I do, you will think up a 20th person, and claim that they are the culprit. By repeating this endlessly, you would make it so I kept searching for their alibis for all eternity... I see, I see! Just like a demon king, summoning a plague of locusts. I wouldn't expect anything less from Kinzo's grandchild. It looks like you have been gifted with a talent in summoning.

In short! It is impossible to always prove an alibi for each person X outside of the first 18! How do you like that, Beato?! Now that I know we're having a battle with twisted logic, I won't lose!

Hahahahahahahahahaha! How foolish, who do you think I am? I am the Endless Witch! The thought that you could challenge me endlessly is just absurd. Endless control means that I am able to kill endlessly.

When your 19th person folds, you will call a 20th. When your 20th person folds, you will call a 21st. When your 21st person folds, you will call a 22nd, a 23rd, a 34th, a 64358223579673204th person. Will you trifle with me for all eternity?! I laugh infinite regress. The infinite doesn't affect me!

Well, then, how will you kill my endless plan? Just try and show me?

When I speak in red, it will contain absolutely no illusions. If I say once in red that there are no more than 100 people on this island, you will no longer be permitted to create a 101st person.

See, Battler? What truth shall I tell in red this time? Where shall I strike for the kill and force you into hopelessness? Hahahahahaha! Come, show me your usual frightened face!

...You've brought out your trump card again. So? What and how will Beatrice speak in red this time?

Hoh. What do you mean by that? Suddenly looking so relaxed.

Sorry, but I was also waiting for you to take out that blood-red treasured sword. Let's see, what will you proclaim in red this time? You aren't going to say 'the culprit was one of those 18 people', are you? Let me warn you, that would be self-destruction, right? That would be the same as throwing away your own witch theory yourself. A complete resignation.

Of course, it would also be sad and difficult for me to accept if you told me in red that one of the 18 was the culprit. No matter who the culprit actually was, it would bring some tough emotions...

So, this time it's your plan. That's right, to use your Hempel's Raven, first you'll have to confirm in red how many humans there are other than the 18. And after that, if you proclaim in red that none of the people in this group are the culprit, that might be a fatal wound to me.

...I'm surprised that you no longer have even an atom of fear for that red which you feared so much... You're quite sturdy.

Try taking it out. That trump card of yours. This time, you might be able to make me surrender with a single stroke!

Provoke the witch into using the red truth. It's the only thing you can trust. Walk across the abyss on the edge of a crimson blade.

A good fortress has one single weak point, because that weak point draws the enemy. That point is where the enemy forces will gather, and thusly where you can strike back.

...Hmph. How surprising that you can be this desperate and yet this difficult. One cannot make light of someone putting their life on the line, no matter what the era. It's no surprise you're Kinzo's grandchild. The more cornered you are, the bolder you become!

Hihihihi...

Beatrice may still have some moves remaining, but she's sweating. Battler is becoming skilled, so she has to make her moves carefully.

I'm still waiting. Should we get to the heart of the matter and go with the usual?

The usual, you say. Then, by all means. If I don't hear that, I guess I just won't feel like starting.

BGM: Dread of the Grave

If I hear you say this in red, I will have no choice but to doubt one of the 18. Since it could no longer be the work of a 19th person, all doors will be closed to me.

However, I believe that the culprit is definitely not one of the 18! There's no way that any of those 18 could commit such brutal murders!

...

I'll say it again. Repeat it! "On this island, there are no more than 18 people"!

......I refuse. I won't say why.

The door remains open. The culprit doesn't have to be one of the 18. There's a 19th person on this island, and that person is the real Beatrice.

The human Beatrice!

Did you just call me, the Endless Witch who has lived for over one thousand years, a human? Hahahahahaha!

Beatrice is silent again. The red has become a risk for the witch, and the foothold for Battler's counterattack. She can't use Hempel's Raven without settling the number of people on the island.

It's alright to refuse. If you can't say it in red, then that means there are a total of 18+X people on this island. If that X is allowed in my first move, that's a really enormous hint, right? From now on, all of the tricks that were impossible for the 18 people can be explained with X humans outside of the 18 people. This is a huge piece that can break open all of the rooms that you called closed because everyone had an alibi!

Believe. Don't doubt. Witches only exist in the valleys between truths!

What's wrong? Repeat it! "There are at least 19 people on this island!"

You refuse? Which means that, from now on, I can create as many fictional character X's outside of the 18 as I want?!

Do as you wish. I have refused to repeat as you told me. Isn't that enough for now? The reason I refused was... no, I still won't tell you. Anyway, you'll know soon.

Still acting tough, I see...

Red words that I don't have to use are a kind of red words in themselves. You called it my red treasured sword. A pleasant example. I will use it, too... a treasured sword is at its best when it is sheathed. There are times when it can instil even more fear because it is sheathed.

That's right. As I fight, I always have to keep in mind whether you might turn everything over with those red words. It's some pretty serious pressure. And there are also times where you make things pretty tough by refusing to repeat me. I can't tell whether you can't repeat because my guess was right, or whether you're just misleading me and letting me think whatever I want. If you think of it that way, I see. A sheathed sword.

What's wrong? If I'm going to bush you off a cliff anyway, I might as well let you climb a little higher first. We have still barely begun. Much is left to come...

Beatrice withdraws for now.

Spectacular, Battler. I wonder if you have started this game with an advantageous development.

I still don't know whether I've taken a piece by my move, or whether she guided me into taking it. After all, knowing you... you probably know that I'm being led into a trap, and that clapping is just a barefaced lie, right?

How could you think that? I am innocently celebrating your ability that has enabled you to take one shot at Milady, even though it is only the first round. In any event, Milady is a person who is quick to become arrogant. I believe that a little encouragement such as that makes for a good medicine every once in a while.

My, my, how incredibly rude of me. Well, then, Milady, Battler. How would you like some black tea? The game has still barely begun. Please leave any tea or pastries that might adorn this game to me. Do not hesitate to advance further in the game.

I will. Let's move forward. Now is when it really starts.

Hmph. Very well. Let us advance the clock. Ronove, black tea, please.

It really is a big piece that you'd hate to miss. It may be hasty, but allow me to make a move. I won't use red, but from here on, Rosa will explain on my behalf. Listen.

Rokkenjima

The arguments continue. However, something is distracting Rosa.

A critical fact has distracted her this whole evening.

Everyone stares at Rosa, willing her to come out and say it.

What could that mean? This entire discussion hinges on the fact that she's alive.

But Rosa disagrees.

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